Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.No independent signal currently supports a deviation from the market price; the estimate is anchored to the market.
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.00; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 40% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $12,233 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 36.1% | 0.37 | 0.58 | — | — | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-36.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $12,233 of depth. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 40.0% | 1.00 | 0.74 | 2.22 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 40.0% (source: last_tick). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33m ago | 40.0% | 40.0% | +0.00pp | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 4h ago | 40.0% | 40.0% | +0.00pp | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 7h ago | 40.0% | 39.5% | -0.53pp | 0.13 | 0.98 |
Order book
captured 7h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- —
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0010
- Spread
- +2.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- —
- Signal score
- 0.00
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for September 7 at 9:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.