Model Track Record
Every forecast this system has ever made is stored permanently and is never edited after the outcome becomes known — the table is append-only, enforced by a database trigger. Scores below are measured against the market-implied baseline, because beating the market is the only claim that matters.
Status
Why no calibration curve is shown
No scoring run has executed yet. Forecasts are being recorded; calibration requires markets to resolve.
How far back this can be reconstructed
Polymarket serves price history for roughly a month after a market closes, then purges it — verified by sampling closures by age: ~300 points at 18 days, 17 points at 26 days, and zero by 63 days, regardless of volume (a $375M market 72 days closed returns nothing). So a track record can be bootstrapped from the last few weeks of resolutions, and no further.
Everything older is unobtainable at any price. The defensible claim is not that nobody can catch up, but that nobody can recover more than about a month of it — the deeper archive exists only for whoever was already running and recording.
A curve is published once 30 more resolutions are scored (minimum sample of 30).
Reproducibility
- Scoring config hash
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- Scored at
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The config hash covers the exact set of scored forecasts and their outcomes. Re-running the scoring job over the same resolutions must reproduce the same hash — without that, a published number is not auditable.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.