Cross-Market Dislocations

Mutually-exclusive market groups whose probabilities violate their arithmetic constraint. These are market facts, not model estimates — the deviation is arithmetic on observed prices.

stale dataas of 2.7h agolate: clob_book, gamma_events

Exhaustive groups (`negRiskAugmented=false`) must sum to exactly 1. Verified: 116 of 123 such groups sum to within 5pp of 1.0.

Augmented groups carry an implicit “none of the listed outcomes” bucket, so they may sum below 1 legitimately. Only an overround is actionable.

Indicative ≠ executable. The indicative figure uses mid/last prices and is not an arbitrage. Only the executable figure — crossing the spread on every leg — supports that claim.

35 groups violating constraint

Legs lacking a two-sided book are excluded — the venue reports ask/2 for those, which is not a probability.

0 executable

Event group	Legs	Constraint	Σ P(yes)	Indicative	Executable	Type	Largest legs
FC Utrecht vs. Go Ahead Eagles	3	sum == 1	1.1060	+10.60pp	n/a	exhaustive	80.4%Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2026-09-05?$4.4k 21.5%Will FC Utrecht vs. Go Ahead Eagles end in a draw?$3.8k 8.7%Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-09-05?$6.2k
Discord IPO Closing Market Cap	8	sum == 1	0.9070	-9.30pp	n/a	exhaustive	41.0%Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?$5.4k 22.3%Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$5.5k 12.5%Will Discord’s market cap be between $8B and $11B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$3.5k
Next James Bond actor?	24	sum <= 1	1.0810	+8.10pp	n/a	augmented	25.1%Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?$5.7k 21.3%No one announced as next James Bond?$76.0k 15.5%Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?$27.4k
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion	16	sum <= 1	1.0665	+6.65pp	n/a	augmented	14.5%Will Notre Dame Fighting Irish win the 2027 CFP National Championship?$4.6k 13.6%Will LSU Tigers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?$7.1k 13.5%Will Ohio State Buckeyes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?$5.3k
Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?	4	sum == 1	0.9425	-5.75pp	n/a	exhaustive	41.5%Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?$23.8k 28.5%Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?$7.9k 18.0%Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?$23.0k
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion	36	sum <= 1	1.0535	+5.35pp	n/a	augmented	18.5%Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?$324.9k 15.5%Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?$259.8k 14.5%Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?$212.9k
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 9?	11	sum == 1	1.0500	+5.00pp	n/a	exhaustive	61.5%Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on September 9?$5.4k 28.5%Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 9?$3.9k 6.0%Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on September 9?$3.6k
Bundesliga: 2027 Champion	18	sum <= 1	1.0460	+4.60pp	n/a	augmented	87.5%Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?$414.8k 4.5%Will Borussia Dortmund be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?$20.0k 2.5%Will Bayer Leverkusen be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?$21.5k
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner	22	sum <= 1	1.0450	+4.50pp	n/a	augmented	47.0%Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?$22.9k 15.5%Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?$15.4k 11.5%Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?$5.0k
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?	15	sum <= 1	1.0405	+4.05pp	n/a	augmented	64.5%Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$29.6k 20.5%Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$33.6k 8.5%Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$29.3k
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 9?	10/11	sum == 1	1.0390	+3.90pp	n/a	exhaustive	44.5%Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 9?$13.5k 23.5%Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on September 9?$5.3k 21.5%Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on September 9?$4.6k
Pro Football: 2027 Champion	32	sum <= 1	1.0385	+3.85pp	n/a	augmented	16.5%Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?$282.5k 8.5%Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?$208.6k 7.0%Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?$178.4k
Oura IPO Closing Market Cap	8	sum == 1	1.0350	+3.50pp	n/a	exhaustive	39.5%Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?$4.3k 29.5%Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?$5.9k 19.5%Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?$4.2k
EPL: 2027 Champion	20	sum <= 1	1.0315	+3.15pp	n/a	augmented	52.5%Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?$243.0k 26.5%Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?$418.8k 10.5%Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?$368.7k
Bitcoin price on September 9?	10/11	sum == 1	1.0310	+3.10pp	n/a	exhaustive	46.0%Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on September 9?$12.2k 30.5%Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on September 9?$11.7k 16.5%Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on September 9?$6.5k
Highest temperature in Busan on September 9?	10/11	sum == 1	0.9700	-3.00pp	n/a	exhaustive	34.5%Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on September 9?$8.8k 28.5%Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 9?$10.9k 15.5%Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on September 9?$4.4k
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?	15	sum == 1	1.0300	+3.00pp	n/a	exhaustive	42.5%Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?$3.8k 22.7%Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$8.5k 21.3%Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?$9.5k
Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?	4	sum == 1	1.0295	+2.95pp	n/a	exhaustive	44.5%Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?$25.4k 39.5%Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes?$51.7k 16.0%Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?$37.0k
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 8?	10/11	sum == 1	1.0285	+2.85pp	n/a	exhaustive	32.5%Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on September 8?$5.5k 24.5%Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on September 8?$4.8k 21.5%Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on September 8?$6.2k
Bitcoin price on September 10?	11	sum == 1	1.0280	+2.80pp	n/a	exhaustive	34.5%Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on September 10?$6.8k 29.0%Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on September 10?$7.0k 18.0%Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on September 10?$7.2k
Highest temperature in London on September 9?	11	sum == 1	1.0280	+2.80pp	n/a	exhaustive	60.5%Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 9?$3.5k 23.5%Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 9?$4.6k 14.0%Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 9?$6.2k
2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)	8	sum <= 1	1.0255	+2.55pp	n/a	augmented	28.5%Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?$39.7k 22.3%Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open?$27.5k 19.7%Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?$32.8k
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?	4	sum == 1	1.0255	+2.55pp	n/a	exhaustive	59.5%Will Linke win between 8% and 11% of all valid second votes?$23.5k 26.0%Will Linke win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes?$6.3k 16.2%Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?$32.6k
What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	9/10	sum <= 1	1.0200	+2.00pp	n/a	augmented	98.5%Will "Turning Point: Generation 9/11" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?$1.4k 1.3%Will "Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?$1.8k 0.6%Will "The Whisper Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?$2.3k
Fed Decision in October?	5	sum == 1	1.0195	+1.95pp	n/a	exhaustive	67.5%Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$507.3k 30.5%Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$511.3k 2.6%Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$171.5k
NBA: 2027 Champion	30	sum <= 1	1.0195	+1.95pp	n/a	augmented	21.5%Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?$289.4k 20.5%Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?$188.2k 11.6%Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?$305.8k
Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series	5	sum == 1	1.0195	+1.95pp	n/a	exhaustive	88.0%Will “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?$1.9k 8.5%Will “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?$2.1k 3.8%Will “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or ant$1.8k
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap	7	sum == 1	1.0190	+1.90pp	n/a	exhaustive	68.8%Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$9.2k 11.0%Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027$16.8k 9.8%Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?$14.5k
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?	5	sum == 1	1.0180	+1.80pp	n/a	exhaustive	79.5%Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30$8.7k 18.5%Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30$5.8k 1.4%Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30$7.7k
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF	3	sum == 1	0.9850	-1.50pp	n/a	exhaustive	52.5%Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?$255.3k 23.5%Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?$132.8k 22.5%Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-08?$168.0k
Coventry City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC	3	sum == 1	1.0150	+1.50pp	n/a	exhaustive	52.5%Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13?$124.2k 25.5%Will Coventry City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?$26.6k 23.5%Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-13?$24.9k
Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Faisaly Saudi Club	3	sum == 1	1.0150	+1.50pp	n/a	exhaustive	50.5%Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-09-08?$66.6k 26.5%Will Al Faisaly Saudi Club win on 2026-09-08?$75.6k 24.5%Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Faisaly Saudi Club end in a draw?$79.4k
Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal FC	3	sum == 1	1.0150	+1.50pp	n/a	exhaustive	66.5%Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12?$81.3k 22.5%Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?$71.5k 12.5%Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-12?$96.6k
Ulsan HD FC vs. FC Seoul	3	sum == 1	1.0150	+1.50pp	n/a	exhaustive	49.5%Will FC Seoul win on 2026-09-08?$111.8k 26.5%Will Ulsan HD FC vs. FC Seoul end in a draw?$111.6k 25.5%Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-09-08?$116.1k
Berlin State Election: Linke Vote Share?	4	sum == 1	1.0150	+1.50pp	n/a	exhaustive	40.5%Will Linke win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?$34.3k 33.5%Will Linke win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?$19.6k 14.5%Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?$25.5k

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.