Discovery/politicsopenneg-riskFed Decision in October?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

stale dataas of 2.6h agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events
Market prob.
2.6%
MARKET FACT
Fair est.
MODEL ESTIMATE
Edge est.
MODEL ESTIMATE
Confidence
Liquidity
$171.5k
MARKET FACT
24h volume
$9.8k
MARKET FACT
Resolves
Oct 28, 26

Price history

Market price over time.

0 points
Not enough price history to chart.

Model analysis

No forecast recorded for this market yet. Forecasts are generated for open, tradeable markets above the liquidity threshold.

Order book

No order book captured.

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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