Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-08?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+78.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $11,719 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.35]
- 2.Mutually-exclusive group of 3 markets sums to 98.5% against a constraint of exactly 100% (-1.5pp underround); normalising implies 22.8% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.62]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.32; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $1,280 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.5 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
- 2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 23% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $11,719 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 29.2% | 0.78 | 0.58 | 0.35 | +0.1227 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+78.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $11,719 of depth. |
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 22.8% | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.62 | +0.0121 | Mutually-exclusive group of 3 markets sums to 98.5% against a constraint of exactly 100% (-1.5pp underround); normalising implies 22.8% for this market. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 22.5% | 1.00 | 0.78 | 2.34 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 22.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 22.5% | 23.3% | +0.78pp | 0.32 | 1.41 |
| 6h ago | 22.5% | 22.6% | +0.09pp | 0.14 | 0.88 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 23.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0111
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $1,280
- Signal score
- 1.41
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.uefa.com/
In the upcoming game, scheduled for September 8, 2026 If Villarreal CF wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.