Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Mutually-exclusive group of 5 markets sums to 101.8% against a constraint of exactly 100% (+1.8pp overround); normalising implies 78.1% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.64]
- 2.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-24.9% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $4,142 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.31]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Price momentum 1h: +0.56 logit, 6h: +0.58 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.26; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 3.Spread is 3.0pp wide, which erodes a meaningful share of the estimated edge on entry.
- 4.Only $1,555 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 22.9 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
- 2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 79% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $4,142 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 78.1% | 0.09 | 0.32 | 0.64 | -0.0542 | Mutually-exclusive group of 5 markets sums to 101.8% against a constraint of exactly 100% (+1.8pp overround); normalising implies 78.1% for this market. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 82.3% | 0.51 | 0.45 | 0.27 | +0.0483 | Price momentum 1h: +0.56 logit, 6h: +0.58 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 77.6% | 0.25 | 0.52 | 0.31 | -0.0348 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-24.9% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $4,142 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.22 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 408% to $4,142; spread +200%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 79.5% | 1.00 | 0.64 | 1.93 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 79.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 79.5% | 79.4% | -0.14pp | 0.26 | 1.09 |
| 9h ago | 68.5% | 67.9% | -0.58pp | 0.24 | 1.00 |
| 10h ago | 69.0% | 68.3% | -0.67pp | 0.23 | 0.98 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 78.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0628
- Spread
- +3.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $1,555
- Signal score
- 1.09
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
- 18.5%Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?excl·exh
- 1.4%Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?excl·exh
- 1.3%Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?excl·exh
- 1.2%Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 970m by September 30?excl·exh
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.