Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+79.7% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $26 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.12]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: +0.06 logit, 6h: -0.01 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.09]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 10 markets sums to 102.5% against a constraint of at most 100% (+2.5pp overround); normalising implies 19.1% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.70]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.15; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 3.Only $3 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 4.7 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
- 2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 20% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $26 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 25.8% | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.12 | +0.0436 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+79.7% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $26 of depth. |
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 19.1% | 0.12 | 0.35 | 0.70 | -0.0209 | Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 10 markets sums to 102.5% against a constraint of at most 100% (+2.5pp overround); normalising implies 19.1% for this market. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 19.7% | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0010 | Price momentum 1h: +0.06 logit, 6h: -0.01 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.93 | 0.55 | 0.22 | +0.0000 | Liquidity decreased 93% to $26; spread +111%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 19.6% | 1.00 | 0.41 | 1.22 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 19.6% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 19.6% | 19.6% | +0.06pp | 0.15 | 0.53 |
| 6h ago | 18.6% | 18.7% | +0.03pp | 0.16 | 0.58 |
| 9h ago | 19.7% | 19.7% | +0.06pp | 0.15 | 0.53 |
| 10h ago | 20.3% | 20.2% | -0.03pp | 0.12 | 0.45 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 22.30%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.1214
- Spread
- +1.90pp
- Depth within 5%
- $3
- Signal score
- 0.53
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Verified deterministic relationships only
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Resolution criteria
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.