Discovery/sportsopenCounter-Strike: Legacy vs magic (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B

Counter-Strike: Legacy vs magic (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B

stale dataas of 2.6h agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events
Market prob.
63.5%
MARKET FACT
Fair est.
65.8%
MODEL ESTIMATE
Edge est.
+1.29pp
MODEL ESTIMATE
Confidence
0.35low
Liquidity
$20.8k
MARKET FACT
24h volume
$458.3k
MARKET FACT
Resolves
3.1h
Sep 8, 26

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

193 points
60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%66%Sep 6Sep 8

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

  1. 1.$99,675 traded in 24h across 241 wallets, +93% net buying; largest single trade $15,054. [whale_activity v1.0.0, weight 0.48]
  2. 2.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+62.7% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $7,029 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.33]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

  1. 1.Price momentum 1h: -1.44 logit, 6h: -0.13 logit, 24h: -0.27 logit (3 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.36]
  2. 2.Model confidence is 0.35; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
  3. 3.Only $3,102 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

  1. 1.Resolution in 0.1 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.

What would invalidate this

  1. 1.Market price moving to 66% would close the gap.
  2. 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
  3. 3.Liquidity falling materially below $7,029 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

SignalEstimateStrengthConf.WeightContributionExplanation
Whale activityv1.0.0MODEL72.5%0.930.600.48+0.1792$99,675 traded in 24h across 241 wallets, +93% net buying; largest single trade $15,054.
Book imbalancev1.0.0MODEL70.7%0.630.550.33+0.0930Order book shows bid-side pressure (+62.7% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $7,029 of depth.
Momentumv1.0.0MODEL59.2%0.640.600.36-0.0806Price momentum 1h: -1.44 logit, 6h: -0.13 logit, 24h: -0.27 logit (3 horizons, 100% agreement).
Liquidity shiftv1.0.0MODEL0.910.550.22+0.0000Liquidity decreased 91% to $7,029; spread +0%.
Market impliedv1.0.0MARKET64.5%1.000.752.25+0.0000Market-implied probability 64.5% (source: book_mid).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As ofMarketFair est.EdgeConf.Score
3h ago64.5%65.8%+1.29pp0.351.82
6h ago69.5%70.1%+0.58pp0.403.54
9h ago67.5%67.8%+0.32pp0.283.06
10h ago68.5%67.4%-1.06pp0.443.79

Order book

captured 3h ago

PriceSizeTotal
72.00%18$13
71.00%362$257
70.00%1,069$748
69.00%177$122
68.00%1,421$966
67.00%294$197
66.00%4,375$2.9k
65.00%27$18
64.50%spread +1.00ppimb +0.117
64.00%1,616$1.0k
63.00%4,553$2.9k
62.00%39$24
61.00%610$372
60.00%543$326
59.00%173$102
58.00%495$287
57.00%175$100
Bid depth ±5%
$3.9k
Ask depth ±5%
$3.1k

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price
65.98%
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
-0.0039
Spread
+1.00pp
Depth within 5%
$3,102
Signal score
1.82

Recent trades

TimeSidePriceNotional
3h agobuy66.0%$14
3h agobuy66.0%$20
3h agobuy65.0%$6
3h agobuy65.0%$1
3h agobuy65.0%$100
3h agobuy64.0%$491
3h agobuy64.0%$10
3h agobuy64.0%$4
3h agobuy64.0%$42
3h agobuy64.0%$42
3h agobuy64.0%$12
3h agobuy64.0%$8
3h agobuy64.0%$21
3h agobuy64.0%$5
3h agobuy64.0%$3
3h agobuy63.0%$4.2k
3h agobuy63.0%$504
3h agobuy63.0%$20
3h agobuy37.0%$990
3h agobuy64.0%$6
3h agosell63.0%$272
3h agosell63.0%$6
3h agosell63.0%$974
3h agosell36.0%$257
3h agobuy37.0%$37

Resolution criteria

Source: https://hltv.org

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Legacy and magic in the FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B, initially scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy win the match against magic. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against Legacy. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 21, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 7, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.