Discovery/sportsopenCounter-Strike: MIBR vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A

stale dataas of 2.6h agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events
Market prob.
55.0%
MARKET FACT
Fair est.
62.3%
MODEL ESTIMATE
Edge est.
+1.26pp
MODEL ESTIMATE
Confidence
0.28low
Liquidity
$17.1k
MARKET FACT
24h volume
$398.3k
MARKET FACT
Resolves
5.8h
Sep 8, 26

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

193 points
45%50%55%60%62%Sep 6Sep 8

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

  1. 1.$101,755 traded in 24h across 100 wallets, +100% net buying; largest single trade $23,166. [whale_activity v1.0.0, weight 0.48]
  2. 2.Price momentum 1h: +0.51 logit, 6h: +0.55 logit, 24h: +0.67 logit (3 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.36]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

  1. 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-40.3% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $1,273 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
  2. 2.Model confidence is 0.28; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
  3. 3.Only $893 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

  1. 1.Resolution in 0.2 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.

What would invalidate this

  1. 1.Market price moving to 62% would close the gap.
  2. 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
  3. 3.Liquidity falling materially below $1,273 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

SignalEstimateStrengthConf.WeightContributionExplanation
Whale activityv1.0.0MODEL70.0%1.000.600.48+0.1911$101,755 traded in 24h across 100 wallets, +100% net buying; largest single trade $23,166.
Momentumv1.0.0MODEL65.1%0.510.600.36+0.0640Price momentum 1h: +0.51 logit, 6h: +0.55 logit, 24h: +0.67 logit (3 horizons, 100% agreement).
Book imbalancev1.0.0MODEL56.6%0.400.440.27-0.0482Order book shows ask-side pressure (-40.3% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $1,273 of depth.
Liquidity shiftv1.0.0MODEL0.990.550.22+0.0000Liquidity decreased 99% to $1,273; spread +100%.
Market impliedv1.0.0MARKET61.0%1.000.621.85+0.0000Market-implied probability 61.0% (source: book_mid).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As ofMarketFair est.EdgeConf.Score
4h ago61.0%62.3%+1.26pp0.281.37
7h ago48.5%51.9%+3.42pp0.594.01
10h ago47.5%49.9%+2.36pp0.584.55
11h ago47.5%49.2%+1.74pp0.393.77

Order book

captured 4h ago

PriceSizeTotal
70.00%10$7
68.00%112$76
67.00%638$427
66.00%804$531
65.00%270$176
64.00%7$4
63.00%1,400$882
62.00%10$6
61.00%spread +2.00ppimb -0.403
60.00%25$15
59.00%253$149
58.00%372$216
57.00%712$406
56.00%4,477$2.5k
55.00%3,910$2.2k
54.00%285$154
53.00%1,257$666
Bid depth ±5%
$380
Ask depth ±5%
$893

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price
63.21%
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
-0.0160
Spread
+2.00pp
Depth within 5%
$893
Signal score
1.37

Recent trades

TimeSidePriceNotional
4h agobuy56.9%$220
4h agobuy56.4%$10
4h agobuy51.0%$1
4h agobuy48.0%$48
4h agobuy53.0%$10
4h agobuy53.0%$2
4h agobuy48.0%$4
4h agobuy53.0%$261
4h agobuy52.0%$5
4h agobuy53.0%$54
4h agobuy51.0%$52
4h agobuy51.0%$212
4h agobuy50.0%$51
4h agobuy53.4%$1.4k
4h agobuy50.1%$59
4h agobuy50.0%$20
4h agobuy47.7%$41
4h agobuy47.0%$25
4h agobuy54.0%$1
4h agobuy47.0%$10
4h agobuy54.0%$1
4h agosell47.0%$1
4h agobuy46.0%$47
4h agobuy46.0%$10
4h agosell45.0%$15

Resolution criteria

Source: https://hltv.org

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between MIBR and TheMongolz in the FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A, initially scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 1:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win the match against TheMongolz. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against MIBR. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 8, 2026 at 1:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.