Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+100.0% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $750 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.25]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Price momentum 1h: -0.12 logit, 6h: -0.12 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.17; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 3.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 22.8 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 2% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $750 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 2.4% | 1.00 | 0.41 | 0.25 | +0.1109 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+100.0% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $750 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 1.5% | 0.12 | 0.45 | 0.27 | -0.0116 | Price momentum 1h: -0.12 logit, 6h: -0.12 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.22 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 5012% to $750; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 1.6% | 1.00 | 0.65 | 1.95 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 1.6% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 1.6% | 1.6% | +0.05pp | 0.17 | 0.61 |
| 6h ago | 1.8% | 1.8% | +0.03pp | 0.16 | 0.57 |
| 9h ago | 1.8% | 1.8% | +0.02pp | 0.14 | 0.49 |
| 12h ago | 1.8% | 1.7% | -0.01pp | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| 13h ago | 1.8% | 1.8% | +0.01pp | 0.06 | 0.21 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 2.29%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.3022
- Spread
- +0.10pp
- Depth within 5%
- $0
- Signal score
- 0.61
Resolution criteria
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.