US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-7.0% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $28,835 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.38]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.01 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.09]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.38; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 114.8 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 58% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $28,835 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 57.2% | 0.07 | 0.64 | 0.38 | -0.0120 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-7.0% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $28,835 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 57.9% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | -0.0001 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.01 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.11 | 0.26 | 0.10 | +0.0000 | Liquidity decreased 11% to $28,835; spread -50%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 58.0% | 1.00 | 0.87 | 2.61 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 58.0% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36m ago | 58.0% | 57.7% | -0.24pp | 0.38 | 3.18 |
| 4h ago | 57.9% | 58.0% | +0.11pp | 0.26 | 2.65 |
| 7h ago | 58.3% | 57.9% | -0.37pp | 0.25 | 2.92 |
| 10h ago | 58.2% | 57.7% | -0.49pp | 0.16 | 2.69 |
| 10h ago | 58.2% | 57.7% | -0.47pp | 0.16 | 2.68 |
Order book
captured 38m ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 57.51%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0057
- Spread
- +0.10pp
- Depth within 5%
- $17,848
- Signal score
- 3.18
Resolution criteria
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.