Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+98.3% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $12,350 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.35]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.14; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $259 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 114.8 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 56% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $12,350 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 65.1% | 0.98 | 0.58 | 0.35 | +0.1551 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+98.3% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $12,350 of depth. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 54.5% | 1.00 | 0.78 | 2.35 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 54.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34m ago | 54.5% | 56.0% | +1.54pp | 0.14 | 0.87 |
| 4h ago | 55.0% | 53.8% | -1.18pp | 0.11 | 0.65 |
Order book
captured 36m ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 57.67%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0292
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $259
- Signal score
- 0.87
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.