Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+40.9% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $96 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.17]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.09]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.19; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $28 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 114.9 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 21% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $96 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 23.7% | 0.41 | 0.28 | 0.17 | +0.0312 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+40.9% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $96 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 20.5% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0000 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 20.5% | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 20.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | 20.5% | 20.9% | +0.37pp | 0.19 | 0.74 |
| 7h ago | 20.5% | 20.9% | +0.38pp | 0.19 | 0.74 |
| 10h ago | 20.5% | 20.3% | -0.23pp | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| 11h ago | 20.5% | 20.3% | -0.25pp | 0.07 | 0.31 |
Order book
captured 4h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 21.97%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0511
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $28
- Signal score
- 0.74
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Resolution criteria
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.