Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+30.5% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $10,106 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.34]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.36; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $4,829 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 21.9 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 26% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $10,106 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 28.1% | 0.30 | 0.57 | 0.34 | +0.0471 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+30.5% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $10,106 of depth. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 25.4% | 1.00 | 0.81 | 2.42 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 25.4% (source: book_mid). |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 25.4% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0000 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit (1 horizons, 0% agreement). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6h ago | 25.4% | 26.2% | +0.76pp | 0.36 | 1.92 |
| 9h ago | 25.4% | 25.9% | +0.41pp | 0.14 | 0.88 |
| 10h ago | 25.3% | 25.9% | +0.67pp | 0.14 | 0.90 |
Order book
captured 6h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 25.90%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0108
- Spread
- +0.10pp
- Depth within 5%
- $4,829
- Signal score
- 1.92
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
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Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.