Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-09-07?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Mutually-exclusive group of 3 markets sums to 121.5% against a constraint of exactly 100% (+21.5pp overround); normalising implies 17.7% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 1.40]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.18; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
- 2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 21% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $193,242 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 17.7% | 1.00 | 0.70 | 1.40 | -0.3389 | Mutually-exclusive group of 3 markets sums to 121.5% against a constraint of exactly 100% (+21.5pp overround); normalising implies 17.7% for this market. |
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 15.1% | 0.95 | 0.36 | — | — | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-95.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $314 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 1.00 | 0.55 | — | — | Liquidity increased 61438% to $193,242. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 21.5% | 1.00 | 0.95 | 2.85 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 21.5% (source: last_tick). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34m ago | 21.5% | 20.8% | -0.71pp | 0.18 | 0.78 |
| 4h ago | 21.5% | 20.8% | -0.69pp | 0.17 | 0.75 |
| 7h ago | 21.5% | 20.8% | -0.71pp | 0.18 | 0.78 |
| 10h ago | 21.5% | 20.9% | -0.63pp | 0.09 | 0.45 |
Order book
captured 7h ago
One-sided order book.
Only one side has resting orders, so there is no mid price. The venue reports a price of ask/2 in this state, which is an arithmetic artefact rather than a probability — this market is excluded from edge analysis.
- Best bid
- —
- Best ask
- 0.10%
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- —
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0080
- Spread
- —
- Depth within 5%
- —
- Signal score
- 0.78
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
- 100.0%Will EC Vitória win on 2026-09-07?excl·exh
- 0.1%Will EC Vitória vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?excl·exh
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a
In the upcoming game, scheduled for September 7, 2026 If Grêmio FBPA wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.