Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+91.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $18,121 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.36]
- 2.$76,823 traded in 24h across 32 wallets, +25% net buying; largest single trade $24,941. [whale_activity v1.0.0, weight 0.48]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Price momentum 1h: -0.05 logit, 6h: -1.15 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.37; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 3.Only $765 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 6.8 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 56% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $18,121 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 64.3% | 0.92 | 0.61 | 0.36 | +0.1504 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+91.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $18,121 of depth. |
| Whale activityv1.0.0 | MODEL | 56.8% | 0.25 | 0.60 | 0.48 | +0.0472 | $76,823 traded in 24h across 32 wallets, +25% net buying; largest single trade $24,941. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 50.4% | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.27 | -0.0431 | Price momentum 1h: -0.05 logit, 6h: -1.15 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.22 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 9689% to $18,121; spread -70%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 54.4% | 1.00 | 0.80 | 2.39 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 54.4% (source: book_mid). |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 56.03%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0077
- Spread
- +1.20pp
- Depth within 5%
- $765
- Signal score
- 1.65
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Recent trades
| Time | Side | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | buy | 54.5% | $1 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.5% | $2.2k |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.5% | $2 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.5% | $2.3k |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.5% | $455 |
| 3h ago | buy | 54.9% | $91 |
| 3h ago | buy | 54.9% | $1 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.3% | $605 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.1% | $0 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.5% | $413 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.5% | $0 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.1% | $0 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.2% | $192 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.5% | $0 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.5% | $209 |
| 3h ago | buy | 54.5% | $1 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.5% | $870 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.5% | $1 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.7% | $0 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.7% | $221 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.7% | $0 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.9% | $224 |
| 3h ago | buy | 54.7% | $288 |
| 3h ago | sell | 45.8% | $916 |
| 3h ago | buy | 47.4% | $228 |
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Seyboth Wild and Francesco Ferrari in the Genoa, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Seyboth Wild' if Thiago Seyboth Wild advances against Francesco Ferrari. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Ferrari' if Francesco Ferrari advances against Thiago Seyboth Wild. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.