Colorado Rockies vs. New York Yankees
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-71.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $11,427 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.35]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.14; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $1,632 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 7.6 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 25% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $11,427 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 19.9% | 0.71 | 0.58 | 0.35 | -0.1118 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-71.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $11,427 of depth. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 25.5% | 1.00 | 0.78 | 2.33 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 25.5% (source: book_mid). |
Order book
captured 35m ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 25.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0036
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $1,632
- Signal score
- 0.84
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
- 17.5%Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)ladder
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.mlb.com/
In the upcoming MLB game between the Colorado Rockies and New York Yankees, scheduled for September 8 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Colorado Rockies" if the Colorado Rockies win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.