EDGECAST
What is this?
Discovery/sportsopenneg-riskNBA: 2027 Champion

Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Polymarket ↗
stale dataas of 33m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events
Market prob.
4.5%
MARKET FACT
Fair est.
4.5%
MODEL ESTIMATE
Edge est.
-0.01pp
MODEL ESTIMATE
Confidence
0.14low
Liquidity
$222.7k
MARKET FACT
24h volume
$134
MARKET FACT
Resolves
9.7mo
Jul 1, 27

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

4 points
4%Sep 7Sep 8

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

  1. 1.Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 30 markets sums to 101.8% against a constraint of at most 100% (+1.8pp overround); normalising implies 4.4% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.65]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

  1. 1.Model confidence is 0.14; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
  2. 2.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

  1. 1.Resolution in 296.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
  2. 2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.

What would invalidate this

  1. 1.Market price moving to 4% would close the gap.
  2. 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
  3. 3.Liquidity falling materially below $221,941 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

SignalEstimateStrengthConf.WeightContributionExplanation
Cross-marketv1.0.0MODEL4.4%0.090.320.65-0.0124Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 30 markets sums to 101.8% against a constraint of at most 100% (+1.8pp overround); normalising implies 4.4% for this market.
Market impliedv1.0.0MARKET4.5%1.000.902.71+0.0000Market-implied probability 4.5% (source: book_mid).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As ofMarketFair est.EdgeConf.Score
10h ago4.5%4.5%-0.01pp0.140.49
10h ago4.5%4.5%-0.01pp0.140.49

Order book

captured 4h ago

PriceSizeTotal
12.00%700$84
11.00%1,648$181
10.00%722$72
9.00%4,330$390
8.00%3,913$313
7.00%3,975$278
6.00%27,158$1.6k
5.00%70,188$3.5k
4.50%spread +1.00pp
4.00%133,708$5.3k
3.00%235,456$7.1k
2.00%66,675$1.3k
1.00%118,060$1.2k
Bid depth ±5%
$0
Ask depth ±5%
$0

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price
4.00%
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
-0.0061
Spread
+1.00pp
Depth within 5%
$0
Signal score
0.49

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the NBA for the 2026-27 season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to be named as the champion of NBA for the 2026-27 season per the rules of NBA (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the NBA: however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.