Ethereum Up or Down on September 8?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-62.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $4,568 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.31]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.13; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $678 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.2 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 51% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $4,568 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 44.5% | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.31 | -0.0877 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-62.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $4,568 of depth. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 51.5% | 1.00 | 0.72 | 2.17 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 51.5% (source: book_mid). |
Order book
captured 4h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 49.28%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0275
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $678
- Signal score
- 0.70
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.