Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 21 markets sums to 101.8% against a constraint of at most 100% (+1.8pp overround); normalising implies 0.0% for this market. [cross_market v1.0.0, weight 0.65]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.14; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 23.2 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
- 2.Related-market inconsistency may resolve through arbitrage in either leg.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 0% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $67,243 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 0.0% | 0.09 | 0.32 | 0.65 | -0.0119 | Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 21 markets sums to 101.8% against a constraint of at most 100% (+1.8pp overround); normalising implies 0.0% for this market. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 0.1% | 1.00 | 0.93 | 2.78 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 0.1% (source: venue_last_price). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h ago | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.00pp | 0.14 | 0.48 |
| 11h ago | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.00pp | 0.14 | 0.48 |
Order book
captured 49m ago
One-sided order book.
Only one side has resting orders, so there is no mid price. The venue reports a price of ask/2 in this state, which is an arithmetic artefact rather than a probability — this market is excluded from edge analysis.
- Best bid
- —
- Best ask
- 0.10%
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- —
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0010
- Spread
- —
- Depth within 5%
- $0
- Signal score
- 0.48
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Verified deterministic relationships only
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Resolution criteria
Source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.