Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 7?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.No independent signal currently supports a deviation from the market price; the estimate is anchored to the market.
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.00; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 0% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $25,481 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 0.1% | 1.00 | 0.87 | 2.60 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 0.1% (source: venue_last_price). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20m ago | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.00pp | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 3h ago | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.00pp | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 6h ago | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.00pp | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 9h ago | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.00pp | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10h ago | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.00pp | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Order book
captured 9h ago
One-sided order book.
Only one side has resting orders, so there is no mid price. The venue reports a price of ask/2 in this state, which is an arithmetic artefact rather than a probability — this market is excluded from edge analysis.
- Best bid
- —
- Best ask
- 0.10%
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- —
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0010
- Spread
- —
- Depth within 5%
- —
- Signal score
- 0.00
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
- 100.0%Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 7?excl·exh
- 0.1%Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on September 7?excl·exh
- 0.1%Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 7?excl·exh
- 0.1%Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 7?excl·exh
- 0.1%Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 7?excl·exh
- 0.1%Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 7?excl·exh
- 0.1%Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on September 7?excl·exh
- 0.1%Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 7?excl·exh
- 0.1%Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 7?excl·exh
- 0.1%Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 7?excl·exh
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.