Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Price momentum 1h: +0.09 logit, 6h: +0.05 logit, 24h: +1.75 logit (3 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.36]
- 2.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+1.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $229,958 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.45]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.$196,948 traded in 24h across 116 wallets, -27% net selling; largest single trade $70,019. [whale_activity v1.0.0, weight 0.36]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.45; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 22.9 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 96% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $396,682 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 96.7% | 0.46 | 0.60 | 0.36 | +0.0577 | Price momentum 1h: +0.09 logit, 6h: +0.05 logit, 24h: +1.75 logit (3 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Whale activityv1.0.0 | MODEL | 96.0% | 0.20 | 0.45 | 0.36 | -0.0191 | $196,948 traded in 24h across 116 wallets, -27% net selling; largest single trade $70,019. |
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 96.2% | 0.02 | 0.75 | 0.45 | +0.0036 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+1.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $229,958 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.34 | 0.37 | 0.15 | +0.0000 | Liquidity decreased 34% to $396,682; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 96.2% | 1.00 | 0.93 | 2.79 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 96.2% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 96.2% | 96.3% | +0.06pp | 0.45 | 3.58 |
| 6h ago | 95.8% | 96.1% | +0.28pp | 0.45 | 3.63 |
| 9h ago | 96.0% | 96.2% | +0.22pp | 0.44 | 3.58 |
| 10h ago | 96.2% | 96.3% | +0.10pp | 0.45 | 3.60 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 96.64%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0050
- Spread
- +0.40pp
- Depth within 5%
- $87,545
- Signal score
- 3.58
Recent trades
| Time | Side | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | sell | 3.3% | $68 |
| 3h ago | buy | 4.0% | $3 |
| 3h ago | buy | 4.0% | $52 |
| 3h ago | sell | 96.4% | $8 |
| 3h ago | sell | 96.4% | $69 |
| 3h ago | sell | 3.4% | $4 |
| 3h ago | sell | 3.6% | $104 |
| 3h ago | buy | 4.2% | $5 |
| 4h ago | buy | 95.8% | $48 |
| 4h ago | buy | 4.3% | $24 |
| 4h ago | buy | 4.3% | $7 |
| 4h ago | buy | 4.3% | $2 |
| 4h ago | buy | 95.9% | $45 |
| 4h ago | buy | 4.3% | $20 |
| 4h ago | sell | 4.1% | $20 |
| 4h ago | sell | 95.8% | $3 |
| 4h ago | sell | 4.1% | $2 |
| 4h ago | sell | 4.0% | $4 |
| 4h ago | buy | 95.9% | $9 |
| 4h ago | buy | 4.3% | $16 |
| 4h ago | sell | 4.2% | $1 |
| 4h ago | sell | 4.2% | $1 |
| 4h ago | sell | 4.1% | $0 |
| 4h ago | buy | 4.3% | $50 |
| 4h ago | buy | 4.3% | $20 |
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.