LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-46.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $29,734 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.38]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.16; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.2 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 58% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $29,734 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 53.3% | 0.47 | 0.64 | 0.38 | -0.0807 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-46.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $29,734 of depth. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 58.5% | 1.00 | 0.83 | 2.50 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 58.5% (source: book_mid). |
Order book
captured 35m ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 58.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0061
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $10,047
- Signal score
- 1.73
Resolution criteria
Source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Invictus Gaming and LGD Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win Game 1 against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against Invictus Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.