LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-56.1% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $357,428 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.45]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit, 24h: -0.04 logit (3 horizons, 33% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.$89,022 traded in 24h across 229 wallets, +98% net buying; largest single trade $16,000. [whale_activity v1.0.0, weight 0.30]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.43; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.4 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 62% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $357,428 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 56.4% | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.45 | -0.1135 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-56.1% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $357,428 of depth. |
| Whale activityv1.0.0 | MODEL | 64.8% | 0.62 | 0.37 | 0.30 | +0.0294 | $89,022 traded in 24h across 229 wallets, +98% net buying; largest single trade $16,000. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 62.4% | 0.01 | 0.30 | 0.18 | -0.0007 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit, 24h: -0.04 logit (3 horizons, 33% agreement). |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 62.5% | 1.00 | 0.90 | 2.71 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 62.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 62.5% | 61.6% | -0.92pp | 0.43 | 3.70 |
| 6h ago | 62.5% | 61.1% | -1.36pp | 0.42 | 3.79 |
| 9h ago | 62.5% | 61.5% | -0.97pp | 0.42 | 3.70 |
| 10h ago | 62.5% | 61.5% | -0.97pp | 0.42 | 3.70 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 62.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0100
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $83,181
- Signal score
- 3.70
Recent trades
| Time | Side | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | buy | 63.0% | $15 |
| 3h ago | buy | 38.0% | $4 |
| 3h ago | buy | 63.0% | $50 |
| 3h ago | buy | 63.0% | $10 |
| 3h ago | buy | 63.0% | $19 |
| 3h ago | buy | 63.0% | $2 |
| 3h ago | buy | 63.0% | $2 |
| 3h ago | buy | 63.0% | $56 |
| 3h ago | buy | 63.0% | $333 |
| 3h ago | buy | 38.0% | $2 |
| 3h ago | buy | 63.0% | $1 |
| 3h ago | sell | 62.0% | $5 |
| 3h ago | buy | 63.0% | $4 |
| 3h ago | buy | 63.0% | $418 |
| 4h ago | buy | 63.0% | $15 |
| 4h ago | buy | 63.0% | $10 |
| 4h ago | buy | 63.0% | $32 |
| 4h ago | buy | 63.0% | $3.2k |
| 4h ago | buy | 63.0% | $52 |
| 4h ago | buy | 38.0% | $10 |
| 4h ago | buy | 38.0% | $3 |
| 4h ago | buy | 63.0% | $16.0k |
| 4h ago | buy | 63.0% | $2 |
| 4h ago | buy | 63.0% | $2 |
| 4h ago | buy | 63.0% | $2.8k |
Resolution criteria
Source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Invictus Gaming and LGD Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win the match against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win the match against Invictus Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.