Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-66.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $26,328 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.38]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.38; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $4,417 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 114.9 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 15% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $26,328 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 12.8% | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.38 | -0.1133 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-66.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $26,328 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.89 | 0.55 | 0.22 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 89% to $26,328; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 16.5% | 1.00 | 0.83 | 2.48 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 16.5% (source: book_mid). |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 16.5% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0000 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit, 24h: +0.00 logit (3 horizons, 0% agreement). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 16.5% | 15.3% | -1.23pp | 0.38 | 2.05 |
| 6h ago | 16.5% | 15.7% | -0.84pp | 0.39 | 2.44 |
| 9h ago | 16.5% | 16.8% | +0.25pp | 0.36 | 1.92 |
| 10h ago | 16.5% | 16.7% | +0.23pp | 0.36 | 1.94 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 16.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0077
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $4,417
- Signal score
- 2.05
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.