Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-37.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $3,229 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.30]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: -0.06 logit, 6h: -0.06 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.33; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $2,049 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 4.7 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 58% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $3,229 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 54.4% | 0.37 | 0.50 | 0.30 | -0.0503 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-37.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $3,229 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 58.0% | 0.06 | 0.45 | 0.27 | -0.0059 | Price momentum 1h: -0.06 logit, 6h: -0.06 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 58.5% | 1.00 | 0.70 | 2.11 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 58.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 58.5% | 57.7% | -0.79pp | 0.33 | 1.53 |
| 6h ago | 60.0% | 59.4% | -0.56pp | 0.29 | 1.27 |
| 9h ago | 60.0% | 59.9% | -0.10pp | 0.11 | 0.56 |
| 10h ago | 60.0% | 59.8% | -0.17pp | 0.12 | 0.58 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 56.25%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0344
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $2,049
- Signal score
- 1.53
Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.