Discovery/sportsopenneg-riskF1 Drivers' Champion

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 2.6h agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events

Market prob.

85.5%

MARKET FACT

Fair est.

84.8%

MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

-0.74pp

MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

0.30low

Liquidity

$540.7k

MARKET FACT

24h volume

$20.1k

MARKET FACT

Resolves

2.9mo

Dec 6, 26

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

4 points

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-62.0% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $2,966,693 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.45]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

1.Price momentum 1h: +0.01 logit (1 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]
2.Model confidence is 0.30; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.

Key catalysts

1.Resolution in 88.9 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.

What would invalidate this

1.Market price moving to 85% would close the gap.
2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
3.Liquidity falling materially below $3,194,633 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

Signal		Estimate	Strength	Conf.	Weight	Contribution	Explanation
Book imbalancev1.0.0	MODEL	81.7%	0.62	0.75	0.45	-0.1256	Order book shows ask-side pressure (-62.0% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $2,966,693 of depth.
Momentumv1.0.0	MODEL	85.6%	0.01	0.30	0.18	+0.0005	Price momentum 1h: +0.01 logit (1 horizons, 100% agreement).
Market impliedv1.0.0	MARKET	85.5%	1.00	0.95	2.84	+0.0000	Market-implied probability 85.5% (source: book_mid).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As of	Market	Fair est.	Edge	Conf.	Score
6h ago	85.5%	84.8%	-0.74pp	0.30	3.21
9h ago	85.5%	85.0%	-0.49pp	0.19	2.78
10h ago	85.5%	85.0%	-0.49pp	0.19	2.78

Order book

captured 3h ago

PriceSizeTotal

86.50%45$39

86.30%12,829$11.1k

86.20%1,411$1.2k

86.00%1,741$1.5k

85.90%389$334

85.80%938$805

85.70%397$340

85.60%291$249

85.50%spread +0.20ppimb -0.968

85.40%396$338

84.80%3,588$3.0k

84.70%2,400$2.0k

84.60%3,783$3.2k

84.50%620$524

84.40%1,150$971

84.30%11,474$9.7k

84.20%100$84

Bid depth ±5%

$50.4k

Ask depth ±5%

$3.14M

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price: 85.47%
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee): +0.0445
Spread: +0.10pp
Depth within 5%: $51,300
Signal score: 3.21

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.