Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-58.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $17,348 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.36]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.37; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $3,593 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 113.7 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 23% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $17,348 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 20.0% | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.36 | -0.0958 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-58.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $17,348 of depth. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 24.5% | 1.00 | 0.80 | 2.40 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 24.5% (source: book_mid). |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 24.5% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0000 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 24.5% | 23.1% | -1.42pp | 0.37 | 1.98 |
| 6h ago | 24.5% | 23.2% | -1.27pp | 0.37 | 1.96 |
| 9h ago | 24.5% | 23.8% | -0.65pp | 0.15 | 1.03 |
| 10h ago | 24.5% | 23.9% | -0.64pp | 0.15 | 1.03 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 24.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0111
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $3,593
- Signal score
- 1.98
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.