Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-95.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $3,123 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.30]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: -0.15 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.30; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $65 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 114.9 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 13% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $3,123 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 9.9% | 0.96 | 0.50 | 0.30 | -0.1292 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-95.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $3,123 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 14.1% | 0.09 | 0.30 | 0.18 | -0.0058 | Price momentum 1h: -0.15 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.11 | +0.0000 | Liquidity decreased 14% to $3,123; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 14.5% | 1.00 | 0.70 | 2.11 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 14.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 14.5% | 13.5% | -1.02pp | 0.30 | 1.28 |
| 6h ago | 16.5% | 16.2% | -0.32pp | 0.14 | 0.57 |
| 9h ago | 14.5% | 14.1% | -0.45pp | 0.12 | 0.59 |
| 10h ago | 13.5% | 13.0% | -0.51pp | 0.12 | 0.56 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 13.06%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0059
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $65
- Signal score
- 1.28
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.