Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-75.5% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $2,650,632 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.45]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.09 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.46; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 55.7 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 86% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $2,650,632 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 83.3% | 0.76 | 0.75 | 0.45 | -0.1529 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-75.5% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $2,650,632 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 87.4% | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.18 | -0.0024 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -0.09 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). |
| Cross-marketv1.0.0 | MODEL | 86.8% | 0.10 | 0.33 | — | — | Mutually-exclusive (non-exhaustive) group of 2 markets sums to 102.0% against a constraint of at most 100% (+2.0pp overround); normalising implies 86.8% for this market. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.22 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 458% to $2,650,632; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 87.5% | 1.00 | 0.90 | 2.71 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 87.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 87.5% | 86.2% | -1.31pp | 0.46 | 3.92 |
| 6h ago | 87.5% | 86.9% | -0.57pp | 0.48 | 3.80 |
| 9h ago | 88.5% | 87.9% | -0.61pp | 0.41 | 3.57 |
| 10h ago | 86.5% | 87.3% | +0.77pp | 0.18 | 2.82 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 87.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0610
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $476,791
- Signal score
- 3.92
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.