Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-49.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $5,567 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.32]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.32; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $3,165 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 114.9 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 49% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $5,567 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 44.9% | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.32 | -0.0716 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-49.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $5,567 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.17 | +0.0000 | Liquidity decreased 46% to $5,567; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 50.5% | 1.00 | 0.74 | 2.21 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 50.5% (source: book_mid). |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 50.5% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0000 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 50.5% | 49.1% | -1.38pp | 0.32 | 1.74 |
| 6h ago | 50.5% | 51.1% | +0.63pp | 0.36 | 1.92 |
| 9h ago | 50.5% | 51.6% | +1.06pp | 0.14 | 1.04 |
| 10h ago | 50.5% | 51.6% | +1.13pp | 0.14 | 0.96 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 48.21%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0185
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $3,165
- Signal score
- 1.74
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.