Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-63.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $165,020 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.45]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit, 24h: -0.16 logit (3 horizons, 33% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.$53,324 traded in 24h across 223 wallets, +11% net buying; largest single trade $9,941. [whale_activity v1.0.0, weight 0.32]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.42; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 7.7 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 46% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $165,020 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 40.5% | 0.63 | 0.75 | 0.45 | -0.1272 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-63.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $165,020 of depth. |
| Whale activityv1.0.0 | MODEL | 47.9% | 0.08 | 0.40 | 0.32 | +0.0047 | $53,324 traded in 24h across 223 wallets, +11% net buying; largest single trade $9,941. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 47.2% | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.18 | -0.0025 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit, 24h: -0.16 logit (3 horizons, 33% agreement). |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 47.5% | 1.00 | 0.90 | 2.71 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 47.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 47.5% | 46.1% | -1.38pp | 0.42 | 3.78 |
| 6h ago | 47.5% | 45.3% | -2.19pp | 0.57 | 4.48 |
| 9h ago | 47.5% | 44.9% | -2.56pp | 0.47 | 4.22 |
| 10h ago | 47.5% | 44.9% | -2.63pp | 0.47 | 4.22 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 47.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0157
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $30,355
- Signal score
- 3.78
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
- 51.5%Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excl·exh
- 0.5%Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excl·exh
- 0.4%Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excl·exh
- 0.1%Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excl·exh
Recent trades
| Time | Side | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | sell | 47.0% | $3 |
| 3h ago | buy | 48.0% | $1 |
| 3h ago | buy | 53.0% | $2 |
| 3h ago | buy | 48.0% | $2 |
| 3h ago | buy | 48.0% | $3 |
| 3h ago | sell | 47.0% | $14 |
| 3h ago | buy | 53.0% | $2 |
| 3h ago | buy | 48.0% | $749 |
| 3h ago | buy | 53.0% | $2 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $494 |
| 4h ago | buy | 53.0% | $2 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $21 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $149 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $48 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $2 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $10 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $1 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $1 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $50 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $3 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $24 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $2 |
| 4h ago | sell | 47.0% | $7 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $13 |
| 4h ago | buy | 48.0% | $1 |
Resolution criteria
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.