Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-96.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $22,208 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.37]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Price momentum 1h: +0.08 logit, 6h: +0.08 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.24; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 3.Only $352 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 114.3 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 15% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $22,208 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 10.6% | 0.97 | 0.62 | 0.37 | -0.1623 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-96.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $22,208 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 15.9% | 0.08 | 0.45 | 0.27 | +0.0074 | Price momentum 1h: +0.08 logit, 6h: +0.08 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.19 | 0.29 | — | — | Liquidity decreased 19% to $20,446; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 15.5% | 1.00 | 0.82 | 2.45 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 15.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | 15.5% | 14.7% | -0.75pp | 0.24 | 1.05 |
| 8h ago | 14.5% | 14.7% | +0.23pp | 0.36 | 2.18 |
| 11h ago | 14.5% | 14.4% | -0.07pp | 0.39 | 2.56 |
| 14h ago | 14.5% | 14.4% | -0.05pp | 0.37 | 2.53 |
| 17h ago | 14.5% | 14.4% | -0.09pp | 0.37 | 2.53 |
| 20h ago | 14.5% | 13.7% | -0.83pp | 0.37 | 1.92 |
| 23h ago | 14.5% | 14.0% | -0.46pp | 0.15 | 1.01 |
| 24h ago | 14.5% | 14.1% | -0.43pp | 0.15 | 1.05 |
Order book
captured 2h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 14.34%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0058
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $352
- Signal score
- 1.05
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.