Discovery/politicsopenIran leadership change by...?

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 33m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events

Market prob.

26.5%

MARKET FACT

Fair est.

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MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

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MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

—

Liquidity

$31.5k

MARKET FACT

24h volume

$857

MARKET FACT

Resolves

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Jul 1, 27

Price history

Market price over time.

0 points

Not enough price history to chart.

Model analysis

No forecast recorded for this market yet. Forecasts are generated for open, tradeable markets above the liquidity threshold.

Order book

No order book captured.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.