LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+71.5% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $3,271 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.30]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.05 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.31; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $466 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 114.6 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 28% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $3,271 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 33.2% | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.30 | +0.0969 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+71.5% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $3,271 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 26.6% | 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.18 | +0.0013 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.05 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.22 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 557% to $3,271; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 26.5% | 1.00 | 0.70 | 2.11 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 26.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36m ago | 26.5% | 27.8% | +1.27pp | 0.31 | 1.43 |
| 4h ago | 26.5% | 26.9% | +0.36pp | 0.27 | 1.09 |
| 7h ago | 25.5% | 25.6% | +0.11pp | 0.09 | 0.37 |
Order book
captured 38m ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 27.52%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0078
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $466
- Signal score
- 1.43
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of the LAPTOP token is greater than the specified value 1 day after launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token referenced in this market is LAPTOP, the token announced by Hunter Biden for launch on Base, as identified by the token's official channels (https://x.com/Laptoptoken) and confirmed by Hunter Biden or his official representatives. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If the LAPTOP token has not launched by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.