Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-47.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $256,909 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.45]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.45; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 91.7 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 50% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $256,909 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 47.2% | 0.48 | 0.75 | 0.45 | -0.0963 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-47.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $256,909 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.22 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 104% to $256,909; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 52.5% | 1.00 | 0.90 | 2.71 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 52.5% (source: book_mid). |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 52.5% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0000 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 52.5% | 50.5% | -2.00pp | 0.45 | 3.46 |
| 6h ago | 52.5% | 51.2% | -1.27pp | 0.46 | 3.33 |
| 9h ago | 52.5% | 51.5% | -0.98pp | 0.18 | 2.44 |
| 10h ago | 52.5% | 51.5% | -0.98pp | 0.18 | 2.18 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 51.16%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0126
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $14,407
- Signal score
- 3.46
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.