Bitcoin Up or Down on September 8?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-83.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $7,694 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.33]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: -0.57 logit, 6h: -0.73 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.35; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $646 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.4 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 38% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $7,694 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 31.9% | 0.83 | 0.56 | 0.33 | -0.1247 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-83.2% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $7,694 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 35.9% | 0.56 | 0.45 | 0.27 | -0.0528 | Price momentum 1h: -0.57 logit, 6h: -0.73 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.18 | +0.0000 | Liquidity decreased 49% to $7,694; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 40.5% | 1.00 | 0.75 | 2.26 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 40.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 40.5% | 38.0% | -2.46pp | 0.35 | 1.84 |
| 6h ago | 54.5% | 55.4% | +0.95pp | 0.22 | 1.09 |
| 9h ago | 58.5% | 59.3% | +0.78pp | 0.14 | 1.63 |
| 10h ago | 59.5% | 59.8% | +0.31pp | 0.15 | 1.13 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 38.66%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0091
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $646
- Signal score
- 1.84
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.