Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+18.5% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $182,588 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.45]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.43; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 7.1 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 45% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $182,588 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 46.6% | 0.18 | 0.75 | 0.45 | +0.0374 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+18.5% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $182,588 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.12 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 19% to $182,588; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 44.5% | 1.00 | 0.90 | 2.71 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 44.5% (source: book_mid). |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 44.5% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0000 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | 44.5% | 45.2% | +0.74pp | 0.43 | 3.67 |
| 5h ago | 44.5% | 44.1% | -0.38pp | 0.18 | 2.72 |
| 8h ago | 44.5% | 44.2% | -0.27pp | 0.18 | 2.69 |
Order book
captured 2h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 45.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0043
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $74,445
- Signal score
- 3.67
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
- 36.5%Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)ladder
- 27.5%Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)ladder
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.mlb.com/
In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for September 8 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.