Bills vs. Texans: O/U 44.5
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-59.3% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $43,692 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.40]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.39; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 4.7 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 49% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $43,692 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 44.8% | 0.59 | 0.66 | 0.40 | -0.1062 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-59.3% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $43,692 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.15 | +0.0000 | Liquidity increased 37% to $43,692; spread +0%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 51.5% | 1.00 | 0.85 | 2.56 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 51.5% (source: book_mid). |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 51.5% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0000 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h ago | 51.5% | 49.4% | -2.13pp | 0.39 | 3.58 |
| 13h ago | 51.5% | 50.0% | -1.45pp | 0.17 | 2.45 |
| 16h ago | 51.5% | 50.2% | -1.34pp | 0.16 | 1.71 |
Order book
captured 4h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 50.16%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0148
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $17,298
- Signal score
- 3.58
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Bills and Texans combine to score 45 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 45, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.