US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-58.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $278,363 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.45]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.18; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 7.3 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 68% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $278,363 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 63.7% | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.45 | -0.1183 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-58.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $278,363 of depth. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 69.5% | 1.00 | 0.90 | 2.71 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 69.5% (source: book_mid). |
Order book
captured 39m ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 69.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0162
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $88,068
- Signal score
- 2.87
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Linda Noskova in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Linda Noskova. This market will resolve to 'Linda Noskova' if Linda Noskova advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.