US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.$429,282 traded in 24h across 165 wallets, -83% net selling; largest single trade $280,025. [whale_activity v1.0.0, weight 0.48]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +7.54 logit, 24h: +8.07 logit (3 horizons, 67% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.27; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 6.4 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 100% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $103,616 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whale activityv1.0.0 | MODEL | 99.9% | 0.83 | 0.60 | 0.48 | -0.1591 | $429,282 traded in 24h across 165 wallets, -83% net selling; largest single trade $280,025. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 100.0% | 1.00 | 0.45 | 0.27 | +0.0945 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +7.54 logit, 24h: +8.07 logit (3 horizons, 67% agreement). |
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 48.5% | 0.27 | 0.72 | — | — | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-26.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $103,616 of depth. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 100.0% | 1.00 | 0.90 | 2.71 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 100.0% (source: last_tick). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 100.0% | 99.9% | -0.00pp | 0.27 | 0.95 |
| 6h ago | 100.0% | 99.9% | -0.00pp | 0.27 | 0.95 |
| 9h ago | 51.5% | 51.6% | +0.15pp | 0.29 | 3.04 |
| 10h ago | 34.5% | 34.7% | +0.22pp | 0.26 | 2.38 |
Order book
captured 9h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- —
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0228
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- —
- Signal score
- 0.95
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Recent trades
| Time | Side | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $487 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $7 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $33 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $62 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $3 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $25 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $137 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $5 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $25.0k |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $127 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $37 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $891 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $200 |
| 7h ago | buy | 0.1% | $0 |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $4.6k |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $1.5k |
| 7h ago | sell | 99.9% | $166 |
| 8h ago | sell | 99.9% | $42 |
| 8h ago | sell | 99.9% | $2.0k |
| 8h ago | sell | 99.9% | $67 |
| 8h ago | sell | 99.9% | $9 |
| 8h ago | sell | 99.9% | $105 |
| 8h ago | sell | 99.9% | $116 |
| 8h ago | sell | 99.9% | $43 |
| 8h ago | sell | 99.9% | $363 |
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
This market refers to the tennis match between Karen Khachanov and Learner Tien in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Learner Tien. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Karen Khachanov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.