Discovery/politicsopenneg-riskDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 19m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, gamma_events

Market prob.

0.3%

MARKET FACT

Fair est.

0.3%

MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

+0.00pp

MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

0.17low

Liquidity

$2.55M

MARKET FACT

24h volume

$3.4k

MARKET FACT

Resolves

2.2y

Nov 7, 28

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

4 points

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

1.No independent signal currently supports a deviation from the market price; the estimate is anchored to the market.

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

1.Model confidence is 0.17; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
2.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

1.Resolution in 790.7 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.

What would invalidate this

1.Market price moving to 0% would close the gap.
2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
3.Liquidity falling materially below $2,549,012 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

Signal		Estimate	Strength	Conf.	Weight	Contribution	Explanation
Market impliedv1.0.0	MARKET	0.3%	1.00	0.95	2.84	+0.0000	Market-implied probability 0.2% (source: book_mid).
Momentumv1.0.0	MODEL	0.3%	0.00	0.15	0.09	+0.0000	Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As of	Market	Fair est.	Edge	Conf.	Score
3h ago	0.3%	0.3%	+0.00pp	0.17	0.60
6h ago	0.3%	0.3%	+0.00pp	0.17	0.60
9h ago	0.3%	0.3%	+0.00pp	0.00	0.00
10h ago	0.3%	0.3%	+0.00pp	0.00	0.00

Order book

captured 3h ago

PriceSizeTotal

1.00%14,377$144

0.90%128,439$1.2k

0.80%2,181,442$17.5k

0.70%15,785$110

0.60%10,634$64

0.50%6,910$35

0.40%30,525$122

0.30%100,087$300

0.25%spread +0.10pp

0.20%23,909$48

0.10%180,832$181

Bid depth ±5%

Ask depth ±5%

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price: —
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee): -0.0010
Spread: +0.10pp
Depth within 5%: $0
Signal score: 0.60

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.