Discovery/cryptoopenBitcoin above ___ on September 8?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 8?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 47m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events

Market prob.

3.6%

MARKET FACT

Fair est.

3.4%

MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

-0.12pp

MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

0.15low

Liquidity

$32.3k

MARKET FACT

24h volume

$82.1k

MARKET FACT

Resolves

6.8h

Sep 8, 26

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

5 points

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

1.Price momentum 1h: -0.46 logit, 6h: -1.44 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

1.Model confidence is 0.15; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
2.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

1.Resolution in 0.3 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.

What would invalidate this

1.Market price moving to 3% would close the gap.
2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
3.Liquidity falling materially below $32,289 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

Signal		Estimate	Strength	Conf.	Weight	Contribution	Explanation
Momentumv1.0.0	MODEL	2.8%	0.69	0.45	0.27	-0.0654	Price momentum 1h: -0.46 logit, 6h: -1.44 logit (2 horizons, 100% agreement).
Book imbalancev1.0.0	MODEL	9.6%	0.87	0.39	—	—	Order book shows ask-side pressure (-86.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $502 of depth.
Liquidity shiftv1.0.0	MODEL	—	1.00	0.55	0.22	+0.0000	Liquidity increased 6338% to $32,289; spread -50%.
Market impliedv1.0.0	MARKET	3.5%	1.00	0.86	2.58	+0.0000	Market-implied probability 3.5% (source: book_mid).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As of	Market	Fair est.	Edge	Conf.	Score
47m ago	3.5%	3.4%	-0.12pp	0.15	0.55
4h ago	5.5%	5.3%	-0.21pp	0.15	0.56
7h ago	13.5%	12.8%	-0.73pp	0.25	1.04
10h ago	16.5%	16.0%	-0.50pp	0.08	0.40
11h ago	18.5%	18.0%	-0.46pp	0.08	0.40

Order book

captured 50m ago

PriceSizeTotal

5.90%10$1

5.80%890$52

5.00%1,520$76

4.40%7,400$326

4.30%890$38

4.00%1,876$75

3.90%5,000$195

3.80%845$32

3.55%spread +0.50pp

3.30%230$8

3.20%272$9

3.10%424$13

3.00%105$3

2.20%890$20

2.10%18$0

2.00%1,417$28

1.90%7,100$135

Bid depth ±5%

Ask depth ±5%

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price: —
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee): +0.0003
Spread: +0.50pp
Depth within 5%: $0
Signal score: 0.55

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

0.9%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 8?ladder

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.