Discovery/sportsopenCounter-Strike: Alliance vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B

Counter-Strike: Alliance vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B

stale dataas of 2.6h agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, ensemble_forecasts, gamma_events
Market prob.
26.5%
MARKET FACT
Fair est.
26.9%
MODEL ESTIMATE
Edge est.
+0.42pp
MODEL ESTIMATE
Confidence
0.29low
Liquidity
$264.9k
MARKET FACT
24h volume
$486.5k
MARKET FACT
Resolves
6.8h
Sep 8, 26

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

192 points
24%26%28%30%27%Sep 6Sep 8

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

  1. 1.$52,826 traded in 24h across 94 wallets, +100% net buying; largest single trade $8,400. [whale_activity v1.0.0, weight 0.48]
  2. 2.Price momentum 1h: +0.05 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit, 24h: +0.00 logit (3 horizons, 33% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

  1. 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-99.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $1,632 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.28]
  2. 2.Model confidence is 0.29; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
  3. 3.Only $1,627 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

  1. 1.Resolution in 0.3 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.

What would invalidate this

  1. 1.Market price moving to 27% would close the gap.
  2. 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
  3. 3.Liquidity falling materially below $1,632 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

SignalEstimateStrengthConf.WeightContributionExplanation
Whale activityv1.0.0MODEL35.0%1.000.600.48+0.1916$52,826 traded in 24h across 94 wallets, +100% net buying; largest single trade $8,400.
Book imbalancev1.0.0MODEL18.7%0.990.460.28-0.1231Order book shows ask-side pressure (-99.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $1,632 of depth.
Momentumv1.0.0MODEL26.7%0.020.300.18+0.0015Price momentum 1h: +0.05 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit, 24h: +0.00 logit (3 horizons, 33% agreement).
Liquidity shiftv1.0.0MODEL0.890.550.22+0.0000Liquidity decreased 89% to $1,632; spread +0%.
Market impliedv1.0.0MARKET26.5%1.000.661.99+0.0000Market-implied probability 26.5% (source: book_mid).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As ofMarketFair est.EdgeConf.Score
4h ago26.5%26.9%+0.42pp0.291.25
7h ago28.5%27.9%-0.60pp0.422.31
10h ago26.5%30.2%+3.66pp0.482.52
10h ago24.5%26.6%+2.13pp0.361.76

Order book

captured 4h ago

PriceSizeTotal
34.00%152$52
33.00%666$220
32.00%2,438$780
31.00%155$48
30.00%3,858$1.2k
29.00%286,355$83.0k
28.00%49,993$14.0k
27.00%6,026$1.6k
26.50%spread +1.00ppimb -0.994
26.00%20$5
25.00%5,527$1.4k
24.00%27,461$6.6k
23.00%7,837$1.8k
22.00%1,905$419
21.00%2,832$595
16.00%125$20
13.00%50$7
Bid depth ±5%
$5
Ask depth ±5%
$1.6k

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price
27.00%
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
-0.0040
Spread
+1.00pp
Depth within 5%
$1,627
Signal score
1.25

Recent trades

TimeSidePriceNotional
4h agobuy74.9%$30
4h agobuy75.0%$30
4h agobuy75.0%$16
4h agobuy26.8%$7
4h agobuy26.0%$8
4h agobuy75.0%$10
4h agobuy26.0%$2
4h agosell25.0%$2
4h agobuy26.0%$2
4h agobuy75.0%$7
4h agobuy75.0%$5
4h agobuy26.0%$5
4h agobuy75.0%$91
4h agobuy26.0%$3
4h agobuy75.0%$500
4h agobuy75.0%$15
4h agobuy26.0%$1
4h agobuy26.0%$62
4h agobuy26.0%$910
4h agobuy26.0%$78
4h agobuy26.0%$71
4h agobuy75.0%$85
4h agobuy75.0%$20
4h agosell25.0%$31
4h agobuy74.0%$10

Resolution criteria

Source: https://hltv.org

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Alliance and FaZe in the FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B, initially scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win the match against FaZe. This market will resolve to "FaZe" if FaZe win the match against Alliance. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 8, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.