Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+34.0% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $21,506 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.37]
- 2.Price momentum 1h: +0.04 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.18]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.39; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $7,099 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.3 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 46% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $21,506 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 48.3% | 0.34 | 0.62 | 0.37 | +0.0568 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+34.0% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $21,506 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 44.7% | 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.18 | +0.0015 | Price momentum 1h: +0.04 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 50% agreement). |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 44.5% | 1.00 | 0.81 | 2.44 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 44.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 44.5% | 45.5% | +1.02pp | 0.39 | 2.31 |
| 6h ago | 43.5% | 42.5% | -1.03pp | 0.43 | 3.47 |
| 9h ago | 44.5% | 44.8% | +0.27pp | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| 10h ago | 43.5% | 44.1% | +0.64pp | 0.15 | 1.28 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 45.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0107
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $7,099
- Signal score
- 2.31
Resolution criteria
Source: https://hltv.org
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Alliance and FaZe in the FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B, initially scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "FaZe" if FaZe wins 2 or more maps than Alliance in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Alliance". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 8, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.