SMU vs. Florida State
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Price momentum 1h: +1.00 logit, 6h: +1.47 logit, 24h: +1.47 logit (3 horizons, 100% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.36]
- 2.$175,405 traded in 24h across 168 wallets, +96% net buying; largest single trade $24,316. [whale_activity v1.0.0, weight 0.36]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Order book shows ask-side pressure (-75.0% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $351,383 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.45]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.45; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 86% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $351,383 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 80.8% | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.45 | -0.1519 | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-75.0% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $351,383 of depth. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 88.8% | 0.85 | 0.60 | 0.36 | +0.1072 | Price momentum 1h: +1.00 logit, 6h: +1.47 logit, 24h: +1.47 logit (3 horizons, 100% agreement). |
| Whale activityv1.0.0 | MODEL | 87.7% | 0.72 | 0.45 | 0.36 | +0.0691 | $175,405 traded in 24h across 168 wallets, +96% net buying; largest single trade $24,316. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 85.5% | 1.00 | 0.90 | 2.71 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 85.5% (source: book_mid). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | 85.5% | 85.6% | +0.12pp | 0.45 | 3.62 |
| 10h ago | 57.5% | 59.6% | +2.09pp | 0.57 | 4.45 |
| 11h ago | 58.5% | 60.1% | +1.60pp | 0.59 | 4.44 |
Order book
captured 7h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 86.00%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0054
- Spread
- +1.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- $247,885
- Signal score
- 3.62
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
- 100.0%Spread: SMU (-0.5)ladder
- 0.0%3Q Spread: SMU (-1.5)ladder
Recent trades
| Time | Side | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | buy | 81.0% | $1 |
| 7h ago | buy | 81.0% | $2 |
| 7h ago | buy | 81.0% | $2 |
| 7h ago | buy | 80.0% | $4 |
| 7h ago | buy | 78.0% | $4 |
| 7h ago | buy | 78.0% | $5 |
| 7h ago | buy | 25.0% | $2 |
| 7h ago | buy | 25.0% | $2 |
| 7h ago | buy | 24.0% | $6 |
| 7h ago | buy | 23.0% | $1 |
| 7h ago | buy | 23.0% | $1 |
| 7h ago | buy | 22.0% | $9 |
| 7h ago | buy | 22.0% | $2 |
| 7h ago | buy | 22.0% | $1 |
| 7h ago | buy | 22.0% | $1 |
| 7h ago | buy | 22.0% | $1 |
| 7h ago | buy | 22.0% | $1 |
| 7h ago | buy | 22.0% | $1 |
| 7h ago | buy | 79.0% | $2 |
| 7h ago | sell | 21.0% | $70 |
| 7h ago | buy | 79.0% | $16 |
| 7h ago | buy | 79.0% | $28 |
| 7h ago | buy | 79.0% | $200 |
| 7h ago | buy | 79.0% | $30 |
| 7h ago | buy | 22.0% | $60 |
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.ncaa.com/
In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 7 at 7:30PM ET: If SMU wins, the market will resolve to "SMU". If Florida State wins, the market will resolve to "Florida State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.