Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.$105,172 traded in 24h across 127 wallets, +98% net buying; largest single trade $41,353. [whale_activity v1.0.0, weight 0.48]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -7.09 logit, 24h: -7.26 logit (3 horizons, 67% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
- 2.Model confidence is 0.24; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 6.8 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 0% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $29,078 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whale activityv1.0.0 | MODEL | 0.1% | 0.98 | 0.60 | 0.48 | +0.1887 | $105,172 traded in 24h across 127 wallets, +98% net buying; largest single trade $41,353. |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 0.0% | 1.00 | 0.45 | 0.27 | -0.0944 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: -7.09 logit, 24h: -7.26 logit (3 horizons, 67% agreement). |
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 34.8% | 0.26 | 0.75 | — | — | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-26.4% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $354,763 of depth. |
| Liquidity shiftv1.0.0 | MODEL | — | 0.92 | 0.55 | 0.22 | +0.0000 | Liquidity decreased 92% to $29,078; spread -40%. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 0.1% | 1.00 | 0.85 | 2.55 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 0.1% (source: last_tick). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.00pp | 0.24 | 0.85 |
| 6h ago | 3.3% | 3.4% | +0.06pp | 0.26 | 0.91 |
| 9h ago | 37.5% | 37.3% | -0.23pp | 0.43 | 3.55 |
| 10h ago | 37.5% | 37.4% | -0.13pp | 0.42 | 3.49 |
Order book
captured 6h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- —
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0301
- Spread
- +0.60pp
- Depth within 5%
- —
- Signal score
- 0.85
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
- 85.5%Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)ladder
- 2.0%Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)ladder
Recent trades
| Time | Side | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $2.8k |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $269 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $196 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $42 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $4 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $3 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $10 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $528 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $7 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $793 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $35 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $17.2k |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $15 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $199 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $45 |
| 5h ago | sell | 99.9% | $1 |
| 6h ago | sell | 99.9% | $18 |
| 6h ago | sell | 99.9% | $125 |
| 6h ago | sell | 99.9% | $165 |
| 6h ago | sell | 99.9% | $17 |
| 6h ago | sell | 99.9% | $6 |
| 6h ago | sell | 99.9% | $5 |
| 6h ago | sell | 99.9% | $152 |
| 6h ago | sell | 99.9% | $24 |
| 6h ago | sell | 99.9% | $2 |
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.mlb.com/
In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for September 7 at 9:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.