Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +5.56 logit, 24h: +8.05 logit (3 horizons, 67% agreement). [momentum v1.0.0, weight 0.27]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.13; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Spread is 3.0pp wide, which erodes a meaningful share of the estimated edge on entry.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 0.0 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 100% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $18,280 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 100.0% | 1.00 | 0.45 | 0.27 | +0.0944 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +5.56 logit, 24h: +8.05 logit (3 horizons, 67% agreement). |
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 88.4% | 0.02 | 0.61 | — | — | Order book shows ask-side pressure (-1.6% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $18,280 of depth. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 100.0% | 1.00 | 0.72 | 2.16 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 100.0% (source: last_tick). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21m ago | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.00pp | 0.13 | 0.45 |
| 3h ago | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.00pp | 0.13 | 0.45 |
| 6h ago | 88.5% | 88.9% | +0.38pp | 0.22 | 1.80 |
Order book
captured 6h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- —
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- -0.0010
- Spread
- +3.00pp
- Depth within 5%
- —
- Signal score
- 0.45
Related markets
Verified deterministic relationships only
Resolution criteria
Source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for September 7 at 9:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.