Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Price history
Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.
Thesis
Why the estimate deviates from the market
- 1.Order book shows bid-side pressure (+69.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $15,076 of depth. [book_imbalance v1.0.0, weight 0.36]
Counter-thesis
Why this may be wrong
- 1.Model confidence is 0.38; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
- 2.Only $4,805 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.
Key catalysts
- 1.Resolution in 233.7 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.
What would invalidate this
- 1.Market price moving to 37% would close the gap.
- 2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
- 3.Liquidity falling materially below $15,076 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.
Signal breakdown
Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.
| Signal | Estimate | Strength | Conf. | Weight | Contribution | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book imbalancev1.0.0 | MODEL | 42.2% | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.36 | +0.1125 | Order book shows bid-side pressure (+69.8% imbalance within 5% of mid) on $15,076 of depth. |
| Market impliedv1.0.0 | MARKET | 34.8% | 1.00 | 0.83 | 2.49 | +0.0000 | Market-implied probability 34.8% (source: book_mid). |
| Momentumv1.0.0 | MODEL | 34.8% | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.0000 | Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement). |
Our forecast history
Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.
| As of | Market | Fair est. | Edge | Conf. | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 34.8% | 36.9% | +2.19pp | 0.38 | 2.30 |
| 6h ago | 34.8% | 37.1% | +2.33pp | 0.38 | 2.33 |
| 9h ago | 34.8% | 35.9% | +1.15pp | 0.15 | 1.24 |
| 10h ago | 34.8% | 35.9% | +1.15pp | 0.15 | 1.22 |
Order book
captured 3h ago
Tradeability
Whether the edge is actually capturable
- Executable price
- 35.41%
- Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee)
- +0.0424
- Spread
- +0.10pp
- Depth within 5%
- $4,805
- Signal score
- 2.30
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Resolution criteria
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.