Discovery/politicsopenneg-riskNext French Presidential Election

Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?

Polymarket ↗

stale dataas of 20m agoensemble-v1.2.0late: clob_book, gamma_events

Market prob.

0.3%

MARKET FACT

Fair est.

0.3%

MODEL ESTIMATE

Edge est.

+0.00pp

MODEL ESTIMATE

Confidence

0.16low

Liquidity

$86.0k

MARKET FACT

24h volume

$73.2k

MARKET FACT

Resolves

7.7mo

Apr 30, 27

Price history

Solid line: market price (fact). Dashed amber: our fair-value estimate.

5 points

Thesis

Why the estimate deviates from the market

1.No independent signal currently supports a deviation from the market price; the estimate is anchored to the market.

Counter-thesis

Why this may be wrong

1.Model confidence is 0.16; the estimate is shrunk heavily toward the market price and should be treated as weak.
2.Only $0 of depth within 5% of mid; size is limited and slippage will reduce realised edge.

Key catalysts

1.Resolution in 233.6 days; price convergence typically accelerates near expiry.

What would invalidate this

1.Market price moving to 0% would close the gap.
2.A reversal in the order-book imbalance or trade-flow direction that drove this estimate.
3.Liquidity falling materially below $85,961 would make the edge uncapturable regardless of accuracy.

Signal breakdown

Each signal is an independent estimate. Contribution is weight × logit distance from the market price.

Signal		Estimate	Strength	Conf.	Weight	Contribution	Explanation
Market impliedv1.0.0	MARKET	0.3%	1.00	0.94	2.81	+0.0000	Market-implied probability 0.2% (source: book_mid).
Momentumv1.0.0	MODEL	0.3%	0.00	0.15	0.09	+0.0000	Price momentum 1h: +0.00 logit, 6h: +0.00 logit (2 horizons, 0% agreement).

Our forecast history

Every forecast we have recorded on this market, including the wrong ones. Append-only — never edited after the fact.

As of	Market	Fair est.	Edge	Conf.	Score
20m ago	0.3%	0.3%	+0.00pp	0.16	0.57
3h ago	0.3%	0.3%	+0.00pp	0.16	0.56
6h ago	0.3%	0.3%	+0.00pp	0.16	0.57
9h ago	0.3%	0.3%	+0.00pp	0.00	0.00
10h ago	0.3%	0.3%	+0.00pp	0.00	0.00

Order book

captured 23m ago

PriceSizeTotal

1.00%758$8

0.90%1,188$11

0.80%933$7

0.70%4,821$34

0.60%2,294$14

0.50%1,817$9

0.40%545$2

0.30%12,507$38

0.25%spread +0.10pp

0.20%19,467$39

0.10%203,825$204

Bid depth ±5%

Ask depth ±5%

Tradeability

Whether the edge is actually capturable

Executable price: —
Expected value / $1(net of executable price + assumed 10bps taker fee): -0.0010
Spread: +0.10pp
Depth within 5%: $0
Signal score: 0.57

Related markets

Verified deterministic relationships only

Resolution criteria

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Edgecast provides information and analytics, not financial advice and not a guarantee of outcomes. Figures labelled MODEL are estimates produced by our models and are not objective truth. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.